New mathematical model aids in distinguishing nuclear explosionsAustralian researchers improve nuclear test detection accuracy to 99%. Credit: scitechdaily.com

A team of researchers from The Australian National University (ANU) has announced a major breakthrough in detecting underground nuclear tests. Their new method, published in Geophysical Journal International, boasts a 99% accuracy rate in identifying nuclear explosions, up from the previous 82%. This significant improvement is based on a comprehensive dataset of known tests in the US.

Lead author Dr. Mark Hoggard explained the science behind the method, stating that the energy radiating from an explosion can be measured by seismometers. The challenge lies in distinguishing between a nuclear explosion and other seismic sources such as natural earthquakes or man-made noise above ground. This was a problem seven years ago when existing methods failed to confirm North Korea's nuclear test.

Despite North Korea being the only country to conduct an underground nuclear test in the 21st century, recent satellite imagery has revealed that Russia, the US, and China have all built new facilities at their nuclear test sites. While there is no indication that these superpowers plan to resume testing, the current global security landscape is uncertain, especially with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Dr. Hoggard stressed the importance of effective detection methods, particularly in light of the possibility of clandestine tests in some areas of the world. The sheer number of earthquakes makes it challenging to investigate each event and determine if it is suspicious or not. This is where the team's new mathematical model comes in, which does not require any new equipment and can be used in real-time monitoring.

The model was developed by a team of Earth scientists and statisticians from ANU and the Los Alamos government research lab in the US. It uses a revised mathematical approach and more advanced statistical treatment to analyze the physical differences in the pattern of rock deformation at the source of nuclear explosions and earthquakes.

Since the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in the 1960s, international efforts have focused on monitoring significant seismic waves to limit nuclear testing to underground only. This agreement was necessary due to the environmental damage caused by surface and underwater tests, which resulted in widespread radioactive pollution.

The new monitoring methods brought about their own challenges, primarily how to differentiate between nuclear explosions and other seismic sources. However, after more than six decades, the team behind the new research believes their innovative approach could make this process much more manageable, especially for organizations like the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).

Dr. Hoggard emphasized the significance of their mathematical model as another tool in CTBTO's arsenal for detecting secret underground tests. With several major nations still unwilling to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, effective monitoring programs are crucial to hold governments accountable for the environmental and societal impacts of nuclear weapons testing.

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